John Cornyn went to Washington in 2003, replacing retiring Texas Senator Phil Gramm. In his first campaign for national office, Cornyn got 77.2% of the votes in the Republican primary and 55.3% of the votes in the general election.
He ran for reelection in 2008, 2014, and 2020, winning an average of 71.3% of the primary vote and 55.3% of the official vote.
What a difference a few years and some unwise political moves can make. Especially one very bad move: The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act of 2022.
Right now, Cornyn’s running for a fifth term. A recent Emerson poll showed Cornyn with 30% of likely Republican voters; Ken Paxton had 29%, which is within the margin of error. Thirty-seven percent of Texas Republicans are undecided.
That’s a big improvement over June, when an UpOne Insights/Educational Freedom Institute poll reported a 22-point gap, with Paxton getting 50% compared to Cornyn’s 28% share. The same poll also said 54% of Republican voters thought it was time for a new Republican in the Senate.
In recent months, PACs spent more than $7 million boosting Cornyn. The Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, has said it could cost “tens of millions” to get the Republican nomination for Cornyn.
Republican leadership is concerned that a Paxton nomination could give Democrat Colin Allred a shot at flipping the seat, even though the latest polls show either Cornyn or Paxton beating Allred in November.
John Cornyn’s betrayal really shouldn’t have been a surprise; he’s been more RINO than Republican about gun rights for years. Toss in something like a mass school shooting, and he throws in the towel.
Cornyn’s real position on our constitutional rights became crystal clear after the Parkland murders in 2018. The day after the incident, he reached out to the Democrat leadership, saying he was open to discussions about gun policy. He even offered to pay for breakfast or lunch.
Following the May 2022 Uvalde tragedy, he started working with rabidly anti-gun Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut and became instrumental in gathering enough Republican support to get the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act to an eagerly waiting Joe Biden’s desk.
The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act is about mental health & school safety. It’s about ensuring that the tragedy that struck Uvalde, TX, was not in vain.
Texans wanted something good – something productive – to come from this evil act, and I believe it has.
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) May 25, 2023
Resources from the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act are already improving students’ mental health, making schools safer, & saving lives.
Read more from @SenThomTillis, @SenatorCollins, and I in @Newsweek https://t.co/vWEUKELB9Q
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) November 25, 2024
When Biden wasted no time weaponizing the new law through executive orders, Cornyn attempted damage control by introducing a joint resolution of disapproval that everyone knew had no chance of passing. But the damage was done: Cornyn was booed at the Republican convention in Texas, and he lost to John Thune in his bid to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.
Cornyn is now trying to reposition himself with Republican voters by hewing to conservative positions. He was critical of Donald Trump in 2016, but now he’s a big fan, hoping for the President’s endorsement. His recent gains in the polls may have been assisted by Democrats complaining that Cornyn isn’t the guy with whom they used to work. Even Chris Murphy, his partner in crime on the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, laments the change.
In the current Congressional session, Cornyn introduced S.65, the Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2025, an updated version of the bill he introduced as S.19 in 2019. The earlier version died in committee when McConnell refused to let it advance. The latest version has been stuck in the Senate Committee on the Judiciary since January 2025, where it’s likely to stay. Since Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, both just as likely to vote with Democrats as with the GOP, and Rand Paul of Kentucky, who is more of a Libertarian, have not indicated support for national reciprocity, getting the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster is, to put it mildly, unlikely.
There are still six months before the Texas Republican Primary and Ken Paxton has his own baggage, including his wife filing for divorce. Plenty of time to see if John Cornyn can sell himself to voters one more time.
Special Addendum: Tony Gonzales, who represents Texas’ District 23 in the U.S. House, was sole Texas Republican who voted for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Gonzales’ district includes Uvalde and it influenced his vote.
When Gonzales ran for reelection in 2022, he easily won the Republican primary, garnering 78% of the total votes cast. He then went to an easy victory in the general election with almost 56% of the votes while his Democratic opponent got less than 39 percent.
In 2024, after he joined Cornyn and the Democrats to pass the BSCA, the path was a lot more difficult. He was forced into a run-off against Brandon Herrera, a licensed gun dealer who even has an SOT, so he can manufacture and deal in automatic firearms. As the ‘AK Guy,’ Herrera is also one of the top ten pro-gun YouTube personalities with four million subscribers.
Herrera came within 354 votes of defeating Gonzales, despite all the help Gonzales got from the Republican establishment.
Gonzales is running for reelection in 2026, and Herrera recently announced he’s going to take another shot at unseating him.
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About Bill Cawthon
Bill Cawthon first became a gun owner 55 years ago. He has been an active advocate for Americans’ civil liberties for more than a decade. He is the information director for the Second Amendment Society of Texas.
