The October, 2024 National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers are in. They do not show a significant difference in the trends. Both October gun sales and NICS checks are the fifth highest for October, which has been a consistent theme in 2024. While a bit lower than in 2023, the gun sales and NICS checks are still high by historical standards.
Gun sales for October 2024 are estimated at 1.26 million firearms, about 94% of what they were in October 2023. NICS checks for October were about 5% higher than they were in 2023. Both NICS checks and NICS-related gun sales are only somewhat correlated. NICS checks are used for purposes other than gun sales. States’ policies regarding NICS change. Some states require high numbers of NICS checks unrelated to gun sales. Most states do not.
The bar graph shows gun sales by type for months in 2023 (lines) and 2024 (bars). It is obvious the trend for 2024 is a bit less than for 2023, except for August. August gun sales probably increased because of the assassination attempt on the former president and then-candidate for president, Donald Trump.
The election of 2024 confirmed that former President Trump would be the future President Trump. He is only the second president to perform this feat in non-consecutive terms. As of this writing, there has been very little unrest in the forms of protests or riots against the second Trump term. If this trend continues, firearm sales are likely to slump as fears of civil unrest wane. If President Trump can succeed in bringing an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a slump in firearm sales is almost certain.
The supply of firearms has been very close to demand in the last few months. This is clear because of falling prices for many popular models. This is a golden age for the affordability of firearms and ammunition. Prices have occasionally been lower when surplus firearms have been offered below the cost of production. If the Ukraine war is ended, expect ammunition prices to fall as more ammunition production goes into supplies for civilian sales instead of war consumption.
Domestic tranquility is not certain. Domestic unrest may increase significantly as the inauguration approaches and during a second Trump term. The popular vote mandate and the overall landslide of the 2024 elections in favor of conservatives weigh against domestic unrest. We will know in a couple of months.
November and December tend to be the highest months for gun sales. Sales should increase in the next two months. If current trends hold, November and December 2024 sales will be lower than November and December 2023 sales.
Several Second Amendment cases are pending in the courts. The case out of Maryland on whether a ban on semi-automatic rifles, known by the more deceptive and political term of “assault weapons,” could be heard next year. There are challenges against “gun free zones” and against bans on carry by states against residents of other states.
The Trump administration is likely to roll back the anti-Second Amendment policies of the Biden administration. Such a rollback is unlikely to have much effect on gun sales. If the Trump administration can pass a national reciprocity law, it would incentivize more gun sales. A rejection of bans on semi-automatic rifles could also cause an uptick in sales.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
