In August 2025, the adjusted National Instant background Check System (NICS), as computed by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), showed approximate firearm sales of a bit over a million, down about 10% from sales in August 2024. NICS checks, which can be used for other things besides firearm sales, dropped more than 19%. In the last twelve months, only September 2024 and January 2025 showed more adjusted checks than the month from a year earlier. Both months showed only a small increase.
Except for January 2025, all of the months in the second Trump administration show fewer adjusted NICS background checks than the month from a year previous. This may be considered a “Trump Slump”.
Looking at August in the years in which President Trump has been in office, the total adjusted NICS checks for the year are similar, except for 2020. 2020 was a presidential election year in which all stops were pulled out in order to prevent a second term for President Trump. This raised the fear level of a Biden presidency and incentivized more people to purchase firearms. President Trump has openly courted gun owners and Second Amendment advocates.
The fear of a Biden administration was justified, but the courts tempered it. The Biden administration’s war on the Second Amendment kept sales above Trumpian levels in 2021 and 2022. They dipped in 2023 and recovered a bit in 2024.
The number of people who are interested in owning firearms and those who advocate for a restoration of Second Amendment rights varies somewhat with time. Of that number, those who support President Trump likely outnumber those who support the Democratic Party by three to one or more. Now that President Trump is in power and actively working to restore Second Amendment rights, gun sales are dropping by measurable amounts. Those who support President Trump have already purchased firearms or feel less incentive to purchase them than they did during the Biden administration.
A 10% drop in sales may not seem like a large amount. It can make a serious difference in being able to survive in a highly competitive industry such as gun manufacturing. There are many companies which make AR15 type firearms. Nearly all of those companies make a serviceable firearm, from basic models to top of the line, expensive models which cost 5-10 times what a basic model does.
In any large number of companies, some are managed very well and some are not managed as well as others. Some simply have bad luck. When business drops off, the market will eliminate those who are most vulnerable, whether because of mismanagement or bad luck.
This correspondent expects firearm prices to gradually drop, with numerous sales to adjust inventories to lower levels.
Long-term prospects look good. Both suppressors and short-barreled rifles and shotguns will likely be removed from the National Firearms Act (NFA). If that happens, there will be renewed interest in models with threaded barrels, short-barreled rifles and shotguns, and firearms with integral suppressors.
The current situation, where the $200 tax has been removed from silencers/suppressors and short-barreled rifles and shotguns, should stimulate some sales. The tax reduction goes into effect on 1 January 2026.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
