The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers are in for May 2025. The adjusted numbers show very little change from May of 2024, only 1.6% lower than May of last year. The number of firearm sales is over a million, as calculated by NSSF. While down from May of 2024, May of 2025 is still the sixth-highest number of firearms sales recorded in the NICS system over the last 26 years. According to the FBI numbers, total NICS background checks in May of 2025 were 2.2% lower than in May of 2024, so both sales and background checks have moved slightly lower.
For several years, this correspondent has been calculating and estimating numbers for firearms sales using the raw numbers provided by the FBI. The estimate was handgun checks + long gun checks + other (firearm) checks + 2.5 x multiple checks. The difference between this formula and that used by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) has been found to be negligible. Both are estimates and are within a couple of percent. In the future, the NSSF figures will be used. This correspondent is a long-time media member of NSSF.
The rate of decline in firearm sales in May of 2025 was only 1.6%. It is a very small number. As the year progresses, the number of sales recorded by NICS compared to the number of actual firearm sales may go down for structural reasons. The ATF maintains a list of permits that may be used as a substitute for the Brady Law check (NICS check).
Two states have been added to the 27 previous states and Puerto Rico, which have at least one permit that qualifies. Alabama and Michigan have been added to the list after a review by the Trump administration. Both have permits that are eligible as substitutes for the NICS check required by the Brady Law. Alabama has about 816 thousand permit holders. Michigan has about 843 thousand permit holders. Together, that makes about 1.66 million gun owners who do not need to obtain a separate NICS check when they purchase a firearm from a federal dealer.
There are about 250 million adults in the USA as of 2025. About 20 million have felony convictions. Therefore, roughly 230 million are eligible to purchase firearms from a federal dealer. If 1.66 million of those no longer need to go through a NICS check to satisfy the Brady Law, we should expect the number of Firearms sales checks to decrease by about .72 percent. It is a small number, but nearly half of the small sales drop is estimated in May of 2025.
Politically motivated riots in California may spur some people on the edge to purchase firearms in June. If the riots grow, expect firearms sales to rise. If the riots fizzle out, this correspondent expects firearm sales to remain about the same as last year.
According to NICS-adjusted data assembled by the NSSF, the last 12 months show an overall slight decline.
All months are still showing over a million firearm sales per month. May of 2025, according to NSSF calculations, is the 70th consecutive month of firearm sales over 1 million. The estimated total of modern firearms in private hands in the United States is 533 million as of the end of May 2025.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
