Opinion
The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), created by John Lott, has published research on the ratio of active shooting attacks by people who are mentally confused about their gender identity, commonly referred to as “transgender.” In 2024, according to the CRPC research, transgender individuals were 12 times as likely to commit an active shooting attack compared to the population as a whole.
In 2024, Politifact published an article claiming that mass shootings by transgender people is a small number of all mass shootings. As the CPRC research points out, this does not tell us if people who identify as transgender are more or less likely to engage in mass murder or attempted mass murder than the population at large. As is common in discussions of violence and statistics, the way you define the variables makes all the difference in how the numbers shake out. Considering broad definitions of “terrorism” or “gun violence” will give a significantly different result than considering more precise definitions of active shooting attacks or mass killing. Another important variable is what time frame is considered.
The variables most important to determine if transgender people are over-represented in active shooting attacks are the total number of active shooting attacks, the number committed by transgender people, and the percentage of transgender people in the population as a whole. The numbers can be refined by looking at specific population subgroups if there is sufficient data. All of these numbers can be manipulated by changes in definition. When conducting statistical research, it is extremely important to use precise definitions.
The research published by the CRPC does a good job of carefully defining the numbers it uses and the definitions that are used. The CRPC study examines both active shooting and mass killing with the traditional FBI definitions. It uses estimates of the percentage of transgender people in the population from the Centers for Disease Control, a Gallup survey in 2021, and the Census. The numbers vary from .5% to 1% in the period studied. The numbers appear to be rising. The study only looks at the period from 2018 through 2024. The study does not speculate about the causes of the increase in the percentage of people who identify as transgender.
The CRPC study also looks at the age distribution of transgender individuals, finding that most active shooters in this category are concentrated in age groups younger than 30 years old. The CRPC study cites research showing transgender people have much higher levels of suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts, about 10-20 times higher than the rest of the population. That is not 10-20%. It is about 10 times the percentage of people considering suicide than the general population. It is about 20 times the percentage of attempted suicides compared to the percentage attempting suicide in the general population.
The research by the CRPC is a welcome counterpoint to articles that work hard to show people who identify as transgender as less violent than non-trans people. The CRPC research does not examine the motives of people involved in active shooting incidents.
Analysis: It is not surprising that a population that takes significant amounts of powerful drugs, who are not happy with their bodies, who attempt suicide at 20 times the percentage of the population as a whole, could commit crimes against society at much higher levels than the general population.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
