“Why does Polymarket say Sears has little chance of winning?” a question from comment poster “Akai” asks under the AmmoLand article “NRA and President Trump Can Determine Whether Virginia Goes to [Winsome] Earle-Sears or the Democrats.” It’s a fair observation.
That column notes that National Rifle Association leaders have not demonstrated a commitment of resources and manpower equivalent to a plan submitted to them detailing district strategies needed to get low-propensity gun voters to the polls, and that President Trump has yet to come out with a full-bore campaign commitment for the Republican candidate.
It’s also an accurate question. The cryptocurrency-based prediction site, with an impressive accuracy percentage, allows individuals to place bets on various future events. In this case, the smart money says it’ll be a blowout, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s chances predicted at 95% to Earle-Seares’ 5 %.
What does that mean? Are NRA and President Trump showing political savviness by not getting too deep into a race that can’t be won, thus avoiding Democrat gloating that will attempt to exploit their positions as vulnerable in the aftermath of the November election through to the 2026 national midterms?
Who thinks Democrats won’t do that anyway? And left unsaid is how predictions could have changed if the aggressive and well-funded district-by-district organizing campaign presented to NRA before early voting had begun had been adopted and implemented, and if President Trump had used his bully pulpit to urge his followers to get out the vote for Earle-Sears early on, instead of finally speaking up a few days ago and admitting “he has not ‘been too much involved’ in the gubernatorial election in Virginia.”
Why not? Aside from a grudge over something Earle-Sears, who has since offered praise for MAGA, said about him? Plenty of people he’s gone on to embrace have said worse.
And ditto for NRA, still silent on a plan that could have made a real difference in motivating up to 80,000 “may vote pro-gunners” who generally need a presidential election to get get off the stick. It’s fair to wonder if a committed Democrat gun-grabber beating a committed Republican supporter of the Second Amendment will turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, but one that could have been avoided.
It’s also fair to wonder why 80,000 “pro-gunners” need to be motivated to show up at the polls and why “Spanberger enters final stretch with more than triple the amount of money Earle-Sears has,” when nothing less than how the Virginia government will treat the Second Amendment is at stake.
The one “bright spot,” if one really exists, is that Republican Attorney General candidate Jason Miyares is now nominally leading in the polls against Democrat Jay Jones, a gun prohibitionist who speculated on putting bullets in Republicans and watching their children die. That leading “gun control” Democrats are still standing by their man speaks volumes on hypocrisy, and on the character of anyone who would vote for Jones, and he may yet pull out a win because of that.
But say Miyares holds on to his 2% lead and squeaks through. What will this NRA endorsee be both inclined and prepared to do about the citizen disarmament edicts sure to come out of a Spanberger administration, especially since the Virginia Citizens Defense League had earlier declared:
“Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares hasn’t seen any unconstitutional gun-control laws in Virginia that he isn’t willing to defend!”
(As a side note, this column linked to that post a week ago, and since then, it has apparently been removed from the VCDL website, resulting in a “404: Not Found” error message. Fortunately, the Internet Archive/Wayback Machine preserved a copy. It does lead to the question of who removed that page, especially now, essentially hiding it from gun voters, why, who was in on that decision, and were there any outside influences? It’s also interesting to note that post linked to a YouTube video that, in 10 months, has garnered only a handful of views — 336 at this writing — certainly not enough to influence a statewide election, but indicative of how ineffective such efforts are without a capability to publicize them and supporters willing to make the minimal effort of sharing a link.)
Will Miyars continue to defend “laws” that undermine the right to keep and bear arms, or will he earn that NRA endorsement and become the lone bulwark against infringements? Because with a Spanberger win, expect no shortage of new and renewed attacks, and expect legal challenges and appeals to drag on for years with no resolution in the hopes the national pendulum will swing back to the Democrats with an eye on retaking a Supreme Court majority (Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito aren’t getting any younger).
Think of Virginia as a bellwether and a catalyst. Show an enemy committed to your destruction you’re not willing to fight to the hilt and don’t expect that to do anything but embolden them. Hand them a victory and don’t expect them to do anything but view you as an impotent target.
Why waste resources and “political capital” on Earle-Sears? We couldn’t win anyway…? How can anyone say that with certainty, especially when a solid plan that would have given a fighting chance was ignored? And if that’s the signal from our leaders of the attitude gun voters should take, why extend ourselves on any election that looks iffy?
Here’s my challenge to you, the reader. Pray that I’m dead wrong, that Earle-Sears pulls off a miraculous victory, and that I end up swallowing my pride and humbly apologizing to you and to NRA leadership for stirring a pot they had under control. I will, you know.
Or better yet, hope the cavalry arrives in time.
What odds do you think Polymarket would give to either scenario?
UPDATE:
AmmoLand has learned that the VCDL website is in the process of being upgraded. This is why many of the pages are showing the 404 error.
NRA Director Elections 2026: Plenty of Candidates to Choose From
About David Codrea:
David Codrea is the winner of multiple journalist awards for investigating/defending the RKBA and a long-time gun owner rights advocate who defiantly challenges the folly of citizen disarmament. He blogs at “The War on Guns: Notes from the Resistance,” is a regularly featured contributor to Firearms News, and posts on Twitter: @dcodrea and Facebook.
