The National Instant Criminal Background Check System numbers for March 2026 are in, and they show the same pattern gun owners and industry watchers have seen before: the raw FBI total and the NSSF-adjusted figure are telling two different stories.
According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the March 2026 adjusted NICS figure came in at 1,412,917, up 1.9 percent from March 2025. At the same time, the unadjusted FBI total fell to 2,212,094, down 10.5 percent from 2,470,705 a year earlier.
NICS is being used for more and more background checks, which are not directly related to firearm sales. Chief among these are background checks for firearm carry permits and other firearm permits.
As more states have become Constitutional Carry or permitless carry states, and as some states have stopped monthly background checks, the correlation between total NICS background checks and adjusted background checks approximating NICS firearm sales has varied significantly.
Looking at the NICS-adjusted data over the last twelve months from the NSSF, the first quarter (three months) of 2026 is slightly greater than the first quarter of 2025. The difference in the two years is not great, but adjusted sales in the last quarter of 2025 were definitely lower than in the last quarter of 2026.
One of the biggest takeaways from the March release is what is happening in the NFA market. New for 2026, NSSF is now breaking out monthly NFA checks for Form 1 and Form 4 activity. In March, that figure hit 206,871, up 121.2 percent from 93,518 in March 2025. That is a massive year-over-year jump and one more sign that suppressors and other NFA-regulated items are helping drive consumer activity in ways that stand out even within a generally stable gun market.
The state-level breakdown is also worth noting. NSSF said the top five states for adjusted NICS checks in March were Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. For NFA checks specifically, the top five were Texas, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia. Texas remained the clear leader in both categories, with Florida also posting strong numbers across the board.
One reason for the slight increase in sales is the conflict in the Middle East with Iran, where President Trump is fulfilling promises made over at least 15 years. Firearm sales are often driven by uncertainty. This hotter phase of the war with Iran, which has been ongoing for 47 years, has the additional effect of offering President Trump’s opponents opportunities to attack him, as the final outcome has yet to be determined. Uncertainty abroad and domestically exists.
The outcome of the massive destruction the United States and Israeli forces are inflicting on the Iranian theocracy will likely produce a resolution by the end of April 2026, as predicted by the Trump administration. Firearm sales will continue to rise in April.
After April, two things are likely.
- The world will be more stable due to a tamed Iran, which will no longer be sponsoring terrorism.
- The domestic situation will be more stable with falling energy prices and a victorious Trump administration.
If those predictions come true, firearms sales would level off or decline in May and June, months when sales normally drop.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
