The National Instant Background Check System (NICS) firearm sales for January of 2025 are nearly the same as for January of 2024. The total firearm sales are less than one percent different from those in January of last year, as calculated by this correspondent. Last January, about 1.15 million firearm sales were recorded. January of 2025 showed about 1.16 million firearm sales. This is an increase of about .8%. Given the inherent inaccuracies within the data collection systems, the numbers are too close to claim a significant difference. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) numbers for adjusted firearm sales in January of 2025 show a .9% increase in sales from January of 2024.
There are differences between the calculations done by this correspondent and the calculations used by NSSF. From NSSF:
The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.
This correspondent adds the firearm sales figures for handguns, long guns, and other firearms and 2.5X the number of multiple firearm sales recorded to reach an approximation of gun sales performed through the NICS system. This correspondent’s calculations are an approximation of total firearm sales performed through NICS.
The NSSF-adjusted firearm sales are arrived at by subtracting background checks done for things other than firearm sales. NSSF numbers tend to be slightly higher than the calculations done by this correspondent. Some background checks are done to retrieve gun sales from pawn shops. Those are included in the NSSF numbers, but not in this correspondent’s calculations.
The NICS numbers for firearm sales have built-in uncertainties in determining total firearm sales. 24 states allow some people with permits to purchase firearms without a NICS check. Multiple firearms can be purchased with a single NICS check. Private sales are not required to obtain government permission before a sale is made in most states. Because the NSSF and this correspondent’s methods are both based on the numbers reported by the FBI NICS system, they are very close to each other.
Here are the numbers of the four types of firearms used by this correspondent to approximate total firearm sales for January 2025. The bars show values for January 2025, and the lines show values for all of 2024.
The NSSF chart of adjusted NICS numbers for firearms sales in January for 26 years shows a correlation with presidential elections. When Barack Obama or his vice president, Joe Biden, were elected, firearm sales soared in January 2009, 2013, and 2021. When President Trump was elected, firearm sales in January 2017 and 2025 stayed close to the number of firearm sales in January of the year before the election.
The “firearm salesman of the year” moniker applied to President Barack Obama has been surpassed by his former vice president, President Joe Biden. Many consider the Biden Presidency to be the “third term” of President Barack Obama.
The United States of America and the world are in for major corrections. The insane spending set off by the obliteration of budget controls in “continuing resolutions”, put in place during the Obama years, is coming to an end.
Government spending must be brought under control, or the nation will be bankrupted. President Trump and his team have been saddled by enormous, unsustainable debt put in place by the corruption of decades of deficit spending. Increasing productivity can lessen the difficulties by “growing” out of the problem. Much can be accomplished by a combination of allowing the private sector to innovate and economize through deregulation. The second potential is to fuel the economy by decreasing energy costs.
Government spending can always exceed production, because government spending can always be increased by printing/creating money by government fiat. Government spending must be cut to allow production to bring about a balance between deflation and inflation. Government spending cuts will be painful for some. Given the uncertainties involved, this correspondent believes firearm sales will remain similar to what they were in 2024.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
