In the One Big Beautiful Bill passed in 2025, the National Firearms Act (NFA) tax for silencers/suppressors, short barreled rifles (SBR), short barreled shotguns (SBS), and any other weapons (AOW) was reduced from $200 (or $5 for AOW) to $0. The elimination of the tax took effect on January 1, 2026.

According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, there were over 150,000 NFA applications submitted on January 1, 2026. We do not know how many applications were for which type of NFA item. An educated guess is that a majority were for suppressors, a significant minority for SBRs, somewhat less for SBSs, and a few AOWs.

There is quite a bit of chatter on the Internet about the experience of submitting applications and the responses from the ATF computer system. There are reports of forms being approved in hours or days. Many are reporting the ATF 2026 control numbers on their applications. Exactly what those control numbers mean is not certain. Some state they started on October 1, 2025 (the start of the fiscal year), and they were in the low 300,000 range on January 1, 2026. One reasonable assumption is that they represent the number of applications submitted so far in 2026.

According to AR15.com, there are reports that ATF 2026 control numbers have exceeded 1,080,000 as of 11 P.M. on January 8th. Another poster mentioned a control number he received on January 7 was over 897,000.  Some are control numbers 1,300,000 plus as of late January 10, 2026. The implication is that over 100,000 applications are being received per day for the first ten days. The implication and the assumption are incorrect.

At SHOT Show, the BATFE released the actual number of applications received and approved. As of January 22, the number of applications in 2026 exceeded 290,000. About 150,000 applications had been approved.

The problem with control numbers appears to be that a new control number is generated for each attempt to make an application. Multiple control numbers might be generated before an application is finally successfully submitted.

An article published on AmmoLand estimated that the total number of registered silencers in the USA exceeded 5 million by January 2025. It is unknown how many silencers were registered in 2025. Some people were waiting for the zero tax to take effect on January 1, 2026. Some people put in applications and were willing to pay the $200 tax to beat the rush. Some of the rush is pent-up demand from 2025.

The implications of such large numbers of applications bode well for lawsuits claiming silencers/suppressors are protected arms under the Second Amendment, in part, because they are in common use. It is plausible that the number of approved applications could reach a million plus by the end of 2026. There may be a backlog of approvals, but the approval process for digital applications seems to be much faster than in the past.

When the effective cost of an item in demand is reduced from $200 to $0, the demand will soar. Most people will buy commercially made silencers. Making your own SBR is extremely simple: mate one of the commercially available AR-15 uppers with a barrel less than 16 inches to an existing AR-15 type lower. The process takes less than a minute. Alternatively, you could add a commercially made stock to an existing pistol, or register an existing pistol with a pistol brace as an SBR. Silencers are not difficult to make. Many people discussing their NFA applications on the forums this past week mentioned making suppressors using ATF Form 1. Printing .22 rimfire suppressors was a method commonly mentioned.

Determining the actual numbers of applications for the various items may take some time. At times in the past, the ATF has not released NFA numbers without a Freedom of Information Act request. At SHOT Show, numbers were announced by the ATF.  As of January 22,  about 10,000 applications were being made each day.

Vendors of NFA items are willing to help submit applications for a fee. To submit one as an individual takes a little time. In addition to the information required on the form, the fastest way to submit an application requires a digital fingerprint file and a passport-type digital photograph. Applications may still be submitted by mail, but response times could be months rather than days. Once you have a digital fingerprint file, it can be used for a variety of applications. Photographs should be good for a year. Digital fingerprint files can be obtained from multiple sources. This correspondent found a local gun store willing to create the digital fingerprint file for $20, provided the recording medium, such as an SD card or key drive, was supplied. It is likely that bloggers will provide detailed instructions on how to submit the forms very soon.

Many applicants posting on the Internet have submitted multiple applications, ranging from 2 to 30. Once the first application is completed, submitting subsequent applications for the same form requires only a few changes to the existing files.

For those who worry about “being on a list”: Most of us are already on multiple lists. It has become a challenge not to have fingerprints recorded somewhere. Anyone who has been in the military, law enforcement, education, or a government position almost certainly has their fingerprints recorded.

The Trump administration is bringing the ATF into the 21st century. Hundreds of thousands of applications and zero tax cost argue for removing suppressors, SBRs, SBSs, and AOWs from the NFA.

About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.